Prediction: The United States of America will be at war again by 26 July 2017.

Jan 28 2017

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I very much want to be wrong.

Within 180 days of 0000 hours UTC, Friday, 27 January 2017, the United States of
America will declare war once again.  That puts it at Wednesday, 26 July 2017
at 0000 hours UTC.  I do not know for sure, but countries in the Middle East
seem the most likely targets.

This seems due, in part, that the USA seems to be trying to start the Crusades
again (George W. Bush tried once).  The Trump administrations' public and
flagrant distrust, disapproval, and seeming pants-shitting-fear of Muslims
around the world would seem to point to this.

This seems due, in part, to the low approval ratings of President Donald J.
Trump.  As of 28 January 2017 @ 1454 hours PST8PDT, they are at 36% approval,
44% disapproval on http://www.pollingreport.com/djt_job.htm.  I've made a PDF
copy of this file here:

https://drwho.virtadpt.net/files/trump_approval_ratings-20170128.pdf

SHA-512 hash of trump_approval_ratings-20170128.pdf:
81e512ea8e0dce363a262393263481030f13ac98b6ba630de76374bf601dd3bde31b3d6a39a3dcd2b06e44da4b993d6576f6fa27152c59dce81a7c5887709307

To jack up his approval ratings (and improve his chances of re-election, if
nothing else) this is a logical national action to take.  It certainly worked
for George W. Bush after 9/11 but wasn't enough to sustain his approval ratings
in the long run.

Evidence of the above claim: http://www.gallup.com/poll/116500/presidential-approval-ratings-george-bush.aspx

Local copy of the above claim:
https://drwho.virtadpt.net/files/george_w_bush-overall_approval_ratings.pdf

SHA-512 hash of george_w_bush-overall_approval_ratings.pdf:
3c20ec88b4c64a36db135d2ad13d437383f62ca1316b083c3c75352b11514b5df8c0353c20cfce74c332ea861591a9747f6acff446cde4d025761029b0f6d03f

I have received no orders, demands, or suggestions to write or post this.  I
have received no pay or other compensation to write or post this.

I have no insider knowledge.

I have only the patterns of history to suggest this, and I'm seeing everything
happen all over again.  And again.

I don't want to be right again.

- --The Doctor [412/724/301/703/415]

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North Korea: A Polite Rant

Apr 02 2016

If you've been following the news for the past couple of weeks you've no doubt seen lots of hand wringing about North Korea's missile tests. To summarize, they've popped off a couple of missiles that seem to have intercontinental capability, i.e., they could, in theory travel from North Korea to the vicinity of the United States or Canada and deliver their payload. The missiles in question keep landing in the ocean, which strongly suggests deliberate targeting to prove launch and control capability as well as making it more difficult for other countries to get hold of the hardware for analysis. That payload, of course, is what has many worried. Additionally, it's been observed that the US military's anti-ballistic missile capability is less than stellar. Official word from the Pentagon is that they're confident that they could handle such a problem, some evidence backs that up, and other evidence casts doubt upon them, such as failing 75% of the time. Coupled with North Korea kicking up propwash in the international media about US and South Korean forces training together about cutting loose if the two countries don't knock it off (spoiler alert: they haven't and aren't).

On the other hand, earlier this year North Korea successfully put a satellite into orbit (even though it's tumbling, which makes it useless for anything other than a proof-of-concept) and detonated a bomb powerful enough to register as a seismic event several thousand miles away. Regardless of what one may think these are not events to dismiss lightly because they demonstrate dual-use technical capability; the rocket booster used to put the satellite into orbit could also be used to propel a military payload into the airspace of another country, and even if the bomb detonated on 6 January 2016 wasn't actually a hydrogen bomb, it was certainly powerful enough to level a city.

That said, here's my two cents: Sit down, have another cup of coffee, and find something interesting to do.

No, really. Don't worry about this.

Why?